fix: reconcile ambiguous Stripe event ordering

migrations/018_stripe_watermark_reconciliation.sql

@@ -0,0 +1,57 @@
+ALTER TABLE provider_object_event_watermarks
+  ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS requires_reconciliation BOOLEAN NOT NULL DEFAULT false,
+  ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS reconciliation_reason TEXT,
+  ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS last_snapshot_at TIMESTAMPTZ;
+
+CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS stripe_subscription_reconciliations (
+  provider_subscription_id VARCHAR(200) PRIMARY KEY,
+  reason TEXT NOT NULL,
+  status VARCHAR(20) NOT NULL DEFAULT 'pending',
+  attempts INTEGER NOT NULL DEFAULT 0,
+  next_attempt_at TIMESTAMPTZ NOT NULL DEFAULT NOW(),
+  last_error TEXT,
+  lease_owner UUID,
+  lease_until TIMESTAMPTZ,
+  created_at TIMESTAMPTZ NOT NULL DEFAULT NOW(),
+  updated_at TIMESTAMPTZ NOT NULL DEFAULT NOW(),
+  completed_at TIMESTAMPTZ,
+  CONSTRAINT stripe_subscription_reconciliations_status_check
+    CHECK (status IN ('pending', 'processing', 'completed', 'failed'))
+);
+
+WITH corrected AS (
+  UPDATE provider_object_event_watermarks
+  SET last_event_created = 0,
+      last_event_rank = 0,
+      last_event_id = 'reconcile:migration',
+      requires_reconciliation = true,
+      reconciliation_reason = 'migration_016_non_causal_seed',
+      updated_at = NOW()
+  WHERE provider = 'stripe'
+    AND object_type = 'subscription'
+    AND is_deleted = false
+    AND last_event_id LIKE 'migration:%'
+  RETURNING provider_object_id
+)
+INSERT INTO stripe_subscription_reconciliations (
+  provider_subscription_id, reason, status, next_attempt_at
+)
+SELECT
+  provider_object_id,
+  'migration_016_non_causal_seed',
+  'pending',
+  NOW()
+FROM corrected
+ON CONFLICT (provider_subscription_id) DO UPDATE
+SET reason = EXCLUDED.reason,
+    status = 'pending',
+    next_attempt_at = NOW(),
+    last_error = NULL,
+    lease_owner = NULL,
+    lease_until = NULL,
+    completed_at = NULL,
+    updated_at = NOW();
+
+CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_stripe_subscription_reconciliations_ready
+  ON stripe_subscription_reconciliations(next_attempt_at, updated_at)
+  WHERE status IN ('pending', 'failed');